[Math] Standard deviation help

probabilitystandard deviationstatistics

I'm not sure how to start this question.
A brand of rice advertises on the bag that it contains 1kg of rice. The machine that pours the rice however, is not able to exactly pour 1000g each time, rather the actual weights of rice follow a normal distribution with mean set by the machine and standard deviation = 18

(a) Suppose that the machine is set so that the weights have a mean of 1015g. What is the probability that a randomly selected bag of rice will have less rice than advertised on the bag?

I've tried:
Using the formula X-mean/SD
(1000-1015)/18
= -0.83333333
=-0.97
but I know this is wrong I just don't know what way to do it.

The Normal distribution is when the mean, mode and median are all the same

Best Answer

If the weight $X$ of a randomly poured bag of rice is normally distributed with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma = 18$, then the probability that $X < 1000$ is $$\Pr[X < 1000] = \Pr\left[\frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} < \frac{1000 - \mu}{18}\right].$$ If the machine is set so that $\mu = 1015$, then this probability becomes $$\Pr\left[\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma} < \frac{1000-1015}{18}\right] = \Pr[Z < -15/18],$$ where $Z$ is a standard normal random variable with mean $0$ and standard deviation $1$; thus we can look up this probability in a normal distribution table, or use a calculator to obtain $$\Pr[Z < -15/18] = \Phi(-15/18) \approx 0.202328.$$ Thus, when the machine is set to measure out on average 15 grams more rice than is needed, about $20\%$ of the time the bag will still be underweight. This makes sense: the variability of the weight of a bag is $18$ grams, so $15$ extra grams of margin is still less than one standard deviation above the mean. Now if we wanted to be extra sure, we could set the machine to pour out on average, say, 3 standard deviations above the mean, or an extra $3(18) = 54$ grams of rice. The probability of a bag being underweight in such a case would now be only about $0.00135$, much less likely. But the cost of incorporating such an allowance should also be considered, since this would mean that on average, you're giving away an extra $1/18^{\rm th}$ of a bag.