It's very interesting for me to understand How to calculate the expected goals scored by home and by away, when you know only main markets. For example you know this:
Moneyline: 1 – 3.00, X – 3.30, 2 – 2.10
Handicap: Home(0.0/0.5 or 0.25) – 1.90, Away (0.0/-0.5 or -0.25) – 1.90
Over/Under: Over 2.5 – 2.05, Under 2.5 – 1.75
Here what I can see is:
Favorite is Away team. It's expected to score 0.25 goals more than Home.
Expected total goals in this game are around 2.5 (between 2.25 and 2.5) – BUT HOW MUCH EXACTLY?
I want to find:
Expected Goals HOME
Expected Goals AWAY
Then I will make Poisson to find correct score probabilities.
Can you help me?
Best Answer
your example is not the best, so I will make a small change to explain how to do that:
Assume handicap -0.5 odds 1.9 v 1.9 and total 2.5 odds 1.9 v 1.9 So (2.5/ 2) + 0.5 /2 = 1.5 - Expected goals for A Then 2.5-1.5 = 1 - expected goals for B
Things get complicated when you don't have balanced lines, like 2.5 odds 2.00 v 1.85. In these cases, I suggest you using linear transformation until you get the balanced odds. Still, 1st step you should just use the lines as they are giving and forget about the odds. After the calculations are done, you just use different sets of expected goals to get the exact odds.