Sniper Probability Question [Closed]

probability

There are 2 snipers and they are competing each other in game where winner is the one who hits the target first.
First sniper's hit probability is 80%, the second's probability is 50%. In the same time second sniper shoots two times faster than the first.

The question is which sniper has the highest chance to hit the target first?
Thanks in advance,
HARIS

Best Answer

EDIT:I have included an explicit answer for the scenario that both players' first shots are fired simultaneously below.

Martigan's answer above works well for the scenario that both player's first shots coincide. Because it is an interesting problem, here below is the other situation, if their shots are offset.

This can be approached via markov chains if they never fire at the same time (i.e. player A's first shot does not coincide with either player B's first shot or player B's second shot). I will make the additional assumption that neither player gets a substantial head start.

This can then be modeled with a Markov Chain with the following transition diagram:

Transition Diagram

Represented by the matrix with order $A_w, B_w, A, B_1, B_2$ as

$\begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 & .8 & 0 & 0\\ 0 & 1 & 0 & .5 & .5\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & .5\\ 0 & 0 & .2 & 0 & 0\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & .5 & 0\end{bmatrix}$

This is in the form $A=\begin{bmatrix} I & S\\ 0 & R\end{bmatrix}$ which $\lim_{n\to\infty} A^n = \begin{bmatrix}I&S(I-R)^{-1}\\0 & 0\end{bmatrix}$

Through matrix arithmetic, we get that $(I-R)^{-1} \approx \begin{bmatrix}1.05 & 0.26 & 0.53\\ 0.21 & 1.05 & 0.11\\ 0.11 & 0.53 & 1.05\end{bmatrix}$

and that $\lim_{n\to\infty} A^n = \begin{bmatrix}1 & 0 & 0.84 & 0.21 & 0.42\\ 0 & 1 & 0.16 & 0.79 & 0.58\\ 0&0&0&0&0\\ 0&0&0&0&0\\ 0&0&0&0&0\end{bmatrix}$

Thus, if player A shoots first, player A wins with probability 0.84

If player B has two shots before player A, player B wins with probability 0.79

If player B has only one shot before player A, player B wins with probability 0.58


Because of the confusion among other posters, I decided to explicitly solve the interpretation that both snipers' first shots are at the exact same time and there is no tie allowed (if they both hit, they both shoot again).

The transition diagram then is

Transition Diagram 2

The transition matrix with order $A_w, B_w, AB_1, B_2$ is: $\begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 & .4 & 0\\ 0 & 1 & .1 & .5\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & .5\\ 0 & 0 & .5 & 0\end{bmatrix}$

Fundamental matrix then is $\begin{bmatrix}1 & -.5 \\ -.5 & 1\end{bmatrix}^{-1} = \begin{bmatrix}4/3 & 2/3\\2/3&4/3\end{bmatrix}$

And the limiting matrix becomes $\begin{bmatrix}1 & 0 & .5\overline{3} & .2\overline{6}\\ 0 & 1 & .4\overline{6} & .7\overline{3}\\ 0& 0 & 0 & 0\\ 0&0&0&0\end{bmatrix}$

Thus, the chance that player $A$ wins is $0.5\overline{3}$ assuming they both start at the same time, and therefore player $A$ is more likely to win.

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