[Math] Rolling a loaded die and the probability of getting the third six on the 7th roll

combinatoricsprobability

A die is loaded in such a way that the probability of the face with j dots turning up is proportional to $j^2$ for j = 1,2,3,4,5,6. What is the probability of getting the third six on the 7th roll of this loaded die?

I came across this question while reading a book on probability. I initially thought that the answer is ${(\frac{1}{6})}^3$ x $(\frac{5}{6})^4$ because 6 occurs 3 times and 4 times not, but then as I look at the answer keys I was wrong. Can you please explain why the answer to the question is 0.1239?

Best Answer

The die is loaded, so the probability of a single die rolling a six is $\frac {36}{91}$.

[Because $1/91$ is the constant of proportionality determined by the sum of weights (i.e. $\sum\limits_{j=1}^{6} j^{2} = 1^2{+}2^2{+}3^2{+}4^2{+}5^2{+}6^2 = 91$) and $36$ is the weight for result of a single die to be 6.]

Further, the probability of obtaining the third six on the seventh roll is the probability six occurs exactly twice somewhere within the first six rolls, and once on the seventh: $$\dbinom{6}{2}\dfrac{(36)^3(55)^4}{91^7}\approx0.1239{\small 3}$$