[Math] Question in probability r defective items out of lot n

probability

I need help with this question:

A lot contains n articles. If it is known that r of the articles are defective and the articles are inspected in a random order, what is the probability that the kth article (k>=r) inspected will be the last defective one in the lot?

Best Answer

Let me take a concrete example, to illustrate the way to solve.

Total $= n = 10$, defectives $= r = 3$, place where last defective found $=k = 6$

We need $(3-1) = 2$ defectives in the first $5$ followed by the final defective, against ${10\choose3}$ random places for the defectives, thus

$$Pr = \frac{{5\choose2}{1\choose1}}{10\choose3}$$

You should now be able to convert this to a general formula using $n,k,r$

[ Of course, ${1\choose1}$ can be omitted, was included to give better understanding ]

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