Probability Theory – Probability of Drawing All Red Balls While Blue and Green Remain

probabilityprobability theory

Suppose that a box contains 10 red balls, 20 green balls, and 30 blue balls.

Suppose also that balls are drawn from the box one at a time at random.

What is the probability that all the red balls are drawn before the blue or green balls are themselves exhausted. What is the probability that as the last red ball is drawn, there remains at least one blue and one green left in the box.

The answer I was given is $\dfrac{7}{12}$ and a general equation is:
$$
\dfrac{b g}{1-b}+\dfrac{b g}{1-g}
$$ where
$$
g=\dfrac{20}{60},b=\dfrac{30}{60}
$$
but why?

Best Answer

Looking at the final balls is the way to go, as you can regard drawing all $60$ balls as choosing one of the equally probable permutation. Working from the back, you can also ignore a colour once it has been drawn.

The probability that the last ball is blue and that the last green comes after the last red is $\dfrac{30}{10+20+30}\times \dfrac{20}{10+20} =\dfrac{1}{3}$ or more generally $b \times \dfrac{g}{1-b}$.

The probability that the last ball is green and that the last blue comes after the last red is $\dfrac{20}{10+20+30}\times \dfrac{30}{10+30} =\dfrac{1}{4}$ or more generally $g \times \dfrac{b}{1-g}$.

So the probability that all reds are drawn before the final blue and final green are drawn is $\dfrac{1}{3}+\dfrac{1}{4}=\dfrac{7}{12}$ or more generally $ \dfrac{bg}{1-b} + \dfrac{bg}{1-g}$.