[Math] Probablity of Boy

binomial distributionprobability

I faced this question in a coding contest.

The ratio of boys to girls for babies born in Russia is 1.09 : 1 . If there is 1 child born per birth, what proportion of Russian families with exactly 6 children will have at least 3 boys?

I am new to probability. Though I have studied about binomial distribution just now but still not able to lead with this question.
Can anybody help with detailed answer.

Best Answer

Assuming the question is what proportion of Russian families with exactly $n$ children will have at least $k$ boys?

The number of boys in a russian family of $n$ kids has a Binomial distribution of parameters $n$ and $p=\frac{1.09}{2.09}$

Which means that they will have exactly $k$ children with probability

$C^k_np^k(1-p)^{n-k}$

Thus the probability of having at least $k$ children is :

$\sum_{i=k}^nC^i_np^i(1-p)^{n-i}=1-\sum_{i=0}^{k-1}C^i_np^i(1-p)^{n-i}$

There is, to my knowledge, no exact simplification of this formula

Well, just replace $n$ with 6 and $k$ with 3.

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