[Math] probability that two people share the birthday and the date of death

probability

I've encountered an interesting probability problem that my little amount of knowledge does not help me to solve.

Select 1000 people from the past, and ignore the year. Also assume that the 365 days of the year is uniformly distributed. I think the probability that two people have the same birthday is $1-\prod^{1000-1}_{j=1} (1-\frac{j}{365}) $. This probability should be just $1$ I think.

But how about two people sharing the same birthday and death date? Should I calculate the two possibility separately and then multiply them?

Thanks

Best Answer

As it was already pointed out, the probability that at least two people out of 1000 have birthday in one day is exactly 1, since there are only 366 possible dates. Your solution $$1-\prod^{1000-1}_{j=1} \left(1-\frac{j}{366}\right)$$ is not technically correct because even the product is $0$, the term $ \left(1-\frac{j}{366}\right)$ in not a probability for $j > 366$ any more.

If birthday and death day are independent and both uniformly distributed then joint distribution of these two dates is uniform with $366^2$ possible values. Now you can use the same approach so the probability that there are not two people having same birth and death day is: $$1-\prod^{1000-1}_{j=1} \left(1-\frac{j}{366^2}\right)$$