[Math] Probability that the first randomly picked ball is white.

probability

Another mystery for me:

There are 4 white balls and 7 black balls in the jar. Two balls are taken from the jar randomly and not put back in the jar. The second(last) ball is white. What is the probability that the first ball was also white?

Now I think that it shouldn't matter that the second ball was white because the second pick can't affect the first one.

so I think the probability should be 4/11 = 0.36 …

Am I correct or am I wrong?

Best Answer

No need to use Bayes Rule/conditional probabilities.

Pick the second ball first (when you pick a pair of balls, you can swap balls/change their order and preserve probabilities). You are left with 3 whites out of total 10 balls to draw a white ball from. The needed probability is 3/10