[Math] Probability that the first player wins in a drawing game

probability

There is a box with $2$ white balls and $8$ black balls. The balls are drawn and then put back in the box. The player who draws a white ball first wins the game. Player A starts.

What is the probability the player A wins?

I thought that the probability that player A wins at the $n$-th round (starting from $0$) is
$$p_n = \left(\frac45\right)^n\frac15$$
Then the total probability would be
$$P(A) = \sum_{n = 0}^{+\infty} p_n = 1$$
but that does not make any sense. I tried to simulate it numerically, and I get
$$P(A) \approx 0.555\ldots,$$
which makes sense, since it should be slightly higher than $0.5$. How should I solve this problem?

Best Answer

I preassume that the $2$ players draw a ball turn by turn.

Let $E$ denote the event that the first ball drawn is a white one. Then:

$$P(\text{A wins})=P(\text{A wins}|E)P(E)+P(\text{A wins}|E^c)P(E^c)$$

Now realize that: $$P(\text{A wins}|E^c)=1-P(\text{A wins})$$

This because under condition $E^c$ the game somehow starts over, but now with player $B$ as the one who draws the first ball.

Defining $p:=P(\text{A wins})$ we come to the following equation in $p$:

$$p=1\times\frac15+(1-p)\times\frac45=1-\frac45p$$

and find that: $$p=\frac59=0.5555\dots$$

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