[Math] Probability that the balls came from Urn I given five of these balls are white

discrete mathematicsprobabilitystatistics

Urn I contains 25 white and 15 black balls. Urn II contains 15 white
and 25 black balls. An urn is selected at random and five balls are
drawn randomly from this urn without replacement. If exactly five of
these balls are white, what is the probability that the balls came
from Urn I?

So my question derives from the "without replacement" part of the question. I am assuming all five balls are drawn from a urn at the same time rather than one by one? But then it confuses me why they would throw in "without replacement" if you would draw them all at the same time. Anyone have insight on whether it is one-by-one or not?

Given that they are drawn at the same time I get:
P(U1|W) = P(U1 AND W)/P(W)
which turns into P(W|U1)(P(U1)/ (P(W|U1)P(U1) + P(W|U2)P(U2))
Where W: the five balls drawn are white
Ui: Urn i is choosen

is this correct?

Best Answer

"Without replacement" may mean "all at the same time" or it may mean "draw one by one without replacing." Either way gives the same result.

"With replacement" would be "draw one, add a tally, return to the urn, then draw again"


Your formula is correct.   All that remains is how you measure the probabilities for drawing "without replacement".

So... How will you measure the probabilities for drawing "without replacement"?

$\mathsf P(W\mid U_1) = $ the probability of selecting $5$ of the $25$ white out of all ways to select any $5$ of all $40$ (without replacement).

$\mathsf P(W\mid U_2) = $ the probability of selecting $5$ of the $15$ white out of all ways to select any $5$ of all $40$ (without replacement).