[Math] Probability that it rains at least one day of the work-week

gre-examprobability

The probability of rain is $\frac{1}{2}$ for every day next week. What is the chance that it rains on at least one day during the workweek (Monday through Friday)?

Now, P(at least one)=1-P(none)
The way I did it:

Probability that it does not rain from Monday to Friday : $\frac{1}{2^5}$

Probability it does not rain on both Saturday and Sunday: $\frac{1}{4}$

Probability it rains on either Saturday or Sunday or both: $\frac{3}{4}$

So we have, $1-(\frac{1}{2^5}*\frac{1}{4}$ +$\frac{1}{2^5}*\frac{3}{4})$

But the answer given is $1-\frac{1}{2^5}$. Basically this answer is not accounting for Saturday and Sunday. How can this be right?

Source:Manhattan Prep

Best Answer

The set-up is equivalent to

$X$ number of heads are obtained when a coin is tossed $n$ times , when the probability of obtaining head is "p". I hope you know that, X follows a binomial distribution with parameters "n" and "p".

As according to your question, we have, $n = 5,x=1,p=\frac{1}{2}=(1-p)$

$$Pr[X \geq x ] = Pr[X \geq 1 ] = 1 - Pr[X=0] = 1 - \frac{1}{2^5} $$