[Math] Probability that if three balls numbered from 1-20 are selected without replacement that at least one will be numbered at least 17

combinatoricsprobability

I'm a new user here. I am currently self-learning probability theory (long journey ahead). I was wondering as to why my answer is not correct. I have listed the question below.

Three balls are to be randomly selected without replacement from an urn containing 20 balls numbered 1 through 20. If we bet that at least one of the balls that are drawn has a number as large as or larger than 17, what is the probability that we win the bet?

My solution: $ {{ 4 \choose 1}{ 19 \choose 2} \over { 20 \choose 3}} $

Reason: ${ 4 \choose 1}$ is of choosing either 17, 18, 19, or 20. ${ 19 \choose 2}$ once a urn is chosen which is either 17,18, 19 ,20. There are 19 balls left and the value does not matter.

Best Answer

Here lies your problem:

${19 \choose 2}$ once a urn is chosen which is either 17,18, 19 ,20. There are 19 balls left and the value does not matter.

You are not partioning the desired set correctly. The selection for the remaining ball should be made out of the sixteen balls labelled $\{1,2,\dots,16\}$. In addition the problem says

"we bet that at least one of the balls that are drawn has a number as large as or larger than 17"

so after making the above correction you should count the events where $2$ of the balls and $3$ of the balls belong to $\{17,18,19,20\}$ like so

Solution. Let $\mathcal{P}(A)$ denote the required probability and Define $A_i$ to be the event that $i$ of $3$ the balls have a value of at least $17$ for $i\in\{1,2,3\}$ then $$\mathcal{P}(A) = \mathcal{P}(A_1)+\mathcal{P}(A_2)+\mathcal{P}(A_3) = \frac{\binom{4}{1}\cdot\binom{16}{2}+\binom{4}{2}\cdot\binom{16}{1}+\binom{4}{3}\cdot\binom{16}{0}}{\binom{20}{3}}$$