[Math] Probability that device a) does not work if the system does not work? b) does not work if the system operates

conditional probabilityprobability

The following circuit operates if and only if
there is a path of functional devices from left to right.
The probability that each device functions is as shown.
Assume that the probability that a device is functional
does not depend on whether or not other devices are
functional.

What is the probability that device A
a) does not work if the system does not work?
b) does not work if the system operates?

So I have tried working on finding the $\mathbb{P}(A|S)$, wherein $\mathbb{P}(S)$ is the probability that the system will not work and $\mathbb{P}(A)$ is the probability that device A will not work. However, I just can't seem how to find $\mathbb{P}(A\cap S)$.
From what I computed, $\mathbb{P}(S)=0.070625$.

How can I find $\mathbb{P}(A\cap S)$?

Edit: there was a first problem about this one and by solving that I already knew what to do with P[S]. Btw, thank you for the edits people hehehe

Best Answer

I got a result close to yours as of $P(S)$.

I calculated first

$$P(work)=0.9\cdot0.8\cdot0.7[1-0.95^3]+0.95^3[1-0.9\cdot0.8\cdot0.7]+0.9\cdot0.8\cdot0.7\cdot0.95^3=0.929258$$

Thus your $P(S)=0.070742$. Perhaps your calculation are ok but there is just a different approx.

Now to calcualte $P(\overline{A} \cap S)=0.1\cdot[1-0.95^3]=0.0142625$

(if A doesn't work, in order to have the system out of work it is necessary that the lower branch of the system doesn't work too)

Thus $P(\overline{A}|S)\approx 20.16\%$

Similar arguments for the other request

EDIT: the easiest way to calculate $P(S)=[1-0.9\cdot0.8\cdot0.7][1-0.95^3]=0.070742$...I did a lot of useless calculations... :(

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