[Math] Probability question with 3 colored dice

diceprobability

I have a question. A model exam paper has the following question.

Model paper question:
1. Three fair, six-sided dice are rolled. One green, one red, and one blue. Find the probability that precisely two of the dice show the same number.
There are $6$ outcomes for the red die, $6$ outcomes for the green and $6$ outcomes for the blue. Hence by the Multiplication Principle there are $6\times 6 \times 6 = 216$ outcomes of the experiment.

Model paper answer:
There are $3$ possibilities for the die that is to show a different number and $6$ possible numbers for this die. The remaining two dice must have the same number, but different from the first die, whence there are $5$ possibilities for this number. Hence by the Multiplication Principle there are $3\times 6 \times 5 = 90$ outcomes where exactly two dice show the same number, and thus $P(\text{precisely }2\text{ the same}) = 90/216 = 5/12$.

However I don't understand the answer. I picture it in a different way.

  • Only 2 dice can have the same number.
  • One die will have $6$ outcomes. 2 other dice must have each $5$ outcomes because can't have the same number as the first die.

So in this case. The probability of precisely 2 dice having same number is
$(6\times5\times5)/216 = 150/216$.

Why is my thinking wrong here?

Best Answer

Your version has two errors.

$(1)\;$You didn't choose which die is the solo one. To fix it, you need a factor of $3$.

$(2)\;$Of your two factors of $5$, the second one is incorrect. It should be $1$, not $5$, since there is no choice of color for the third die.

With those corrections, you get the product $$(3)(6)(5)(1) = 90$$ which matches the official answer.

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