[Math] Probability of winning at Solitaire

card-gamesprobability

Using a standard deck of playing cards, how many ways of assembling (shuffling) them will result in a competent player always "going out" in a standard (seven initial columns, every remaining third card can be played) game of solitaire? And what proportion / percentage of the total number of ways that a deck can be assembled does that number represent?

Best Answer

To have an answer to this question you need to define exactly the strategy your "competent player" uses. This means one could write a computer program that takes in a position (including what is known about the order of the pack) and outputs the move to take. In my experience there are many positions with multiple moves available where it is not clear what the optimal one is. In theory you could then run through all $52!\approx 8\cdot 10^{67}$ possible decks and count the number that win. In practice that is far too many to do, so you would do a random sample and see how many win.

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