[Math] Probability of winning a 7 game series in 6 games

probability

Team A and B are playing a best of 7 series, with the first team to win in 4 games winning the series. Team A has the probability $\dfrac{1}{2}$ of winning a game. If the series lasts 6 games, what is the probability that Team A wins?

I am confused with my solution, which doesn't feel right with my intuition which suggests Team A or Team B can win the series with a probability of $\dfrac{1}{2}$.

My solution,

Game 6 is the decider, implying that Game 6 went to Team A. Hence of the earlier 5 games 3 won by Team A and 2 by Team B.

This can be done in $\binom{5}{3} = 10$ ways

Probability of any 1 such sequence is, $(\dfrac{1}{2})^6 = \dfrac{1}{64}$

Hence Probability of winning in all 10 ways = $10(\dfrac{1}{64}) = \dfrac{5}{32}$

I think I am probably doing something really stupid here, but can't put my finger on it.

Thanks for all your help!

Best Answer

You are computing the probability that "A wins at the 6th game"

This is not the same as the probability that "A wins at the 6th game, given that the series ends at the 6th game"

In fact:

$$P(A\mbox{ wins at 6th g. | series ends at 6th g.})=\frac{P(A\mbox{ wins at 6th g. and series ends at 6th g.})}{P(\mbox{series ends at 6th g.})}$$ $$=\frac{P(A\mbox{ wins at 6th g.})}{P(\mbox{series ends at 6th g.})}$$ $$=\frac{P(A\mbox{ wins at 6th g.})}{P(A\mbox{ wins at 6th})+P(B\mbox{ wins at 6th)}}$$ $$=\frac{5/32}{5/32+5/32}=1/2$$

Of course your "intuitive" argument would suffice and is rigorous enough, since exchanging "$A$" with "$B$" does not change the probabilities.