[Math] Probability of two cards with the same face value

probabilitystatistics

In (one-deck) blackjack, what's the probability that you are dealt two cards with the same face value?
I think it's 29/221…
Here's why: (Would love some feedback!)
P(2 aces)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 twos)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 threes)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 fours)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 fives)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 sixes)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 sevens)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 eights)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 nines)=(4/52)(3/51)=1/221
P(2 tens)=(16/52)(15/51)=20/221
I get this last line from 4 10's, 4 jacks, 4 queens, and 4 kings which make the 16/52…
So, 9(1/221)+20/221=29/221 which is approximately: 0.0905
Am I doing this right?

Best Answer

Yes, but that's the hard way.

The probability that you are dealt one card of any face and then another card of the same face value is: $$\begin{align}\frac{36}{52}\frac{3}{51}+\frac{16}{52}\frac{15}{51} ~ = & ~ \frac{29}{221} \\[1ex] \approx & ~ 0.1312...\end{align}$$

Since 36 of 52 cards are not 10-valued, and 16 of the 52 are all 10-valued.

Complication: an Ace is either 1-valued or 11-valued.   Should the event of drawing two aces count as having two of the same valued cards?   If not, the answer has to be adjusted.