[Math] Probability of three dice falling in the same quadrant of a box

combinatoricsdiceprobability

This is surely really basic for most people here but it's tripping me up.

You get a box and draw lines to split it up into 4 parts.
I got asked what the probability was that when rolling three dice, all three dices would end up in the same quadrant.

My first take on this was

  • a 1/4 chance of die 1 in quadrant x
  • a 1/4 chance of die 2 in same quadrant x
  • a 1/4 chance of die 3 in same quadrant x
    => 1/4*1/4*1/4 = 1/64 chance

My second take on this was that the first die doesn't matter at all so all that's left is

  • a 1/4 chance of die 2 in same quadrant
  • a 1/4 chance of die 3 in same quadrant
    => 1/4*1/4 = 1/16 chance

But I have been given a solution where all possible combinations are drawn out and as there are 20 possible combinations, the odds are 1/20.

What is correct (if any) and why?

Best Answer

The possible combinations are not equi-probable. For instance it is more probable to have 3 dice in 3 known different quadrants than in a single one. You can not get the probability of a combination by taking the inverse of the number of combinations. So your result $\frac{1}{16}$ is correct.