[Math] Probability of the union of infinite independent events

probability

Let {$A_n$, $n \geq 1$ } be indipendent events, and suppose that $P(A_n)<1$ for all n.

Prove that
$$P(A_n \hspace{0.2 cm} i.o.)= 1 \hspace{0.2 cm}\Longleftrightarrow \hspace{0.2cm} P(\bigcup^\infty_{n=1} {A_n})=1$$

Could you help me ?

I know from borel-cantelli theorem that $P(A_n \hspace{0.2 cm} i.o.)= 1$ occurs when, given n indipendent events, $\sum^\infty_{n=1} P(A_n)= \infty$.

So $P(A_n \hspace{0.2 cm} i.o.)= P(limsup \hspace{0.1 cm} A_n) = P(\bigcap^\infty_{n=1} \bigcup^\infty_{m=n} A_m) \hspace{0.1 cm} \leq \hspace{0.1 cm}P(\bigcup^\infty_{m=n} A_m)= \sum^\infty_{m=n}P(A_m)\rightarrow 1$
as $m\rightarrow \infty$

Is it correct ?

Thank you for any help you may provide

Best Answer

You may have already caught this error, but the line $$P(\bigcup_{m=n}^{\infty} A_m) = \sum_{m=n}^{\infty} P(A_m) $$ would be correct if the events were disjoint, and independent events are only disjoint in the trivial case where at least one has probability 0.

The ($\Rightarrow$) direction of the proof is trivial; if $\omega$ is such that $\omega \in A_n$ for infinitely many $A_n$, then in particular $\omega \in A_n$ for at least one $A_n$.

For the other direction, fix an arbitrary integer $n$, and consider the decomposition $$\bigcup_{m=1}^{\infty} A_m = \bigcup_{m=1}^n A_m \cup \bigcup_{m=n+1}^{\infty} A_m.$$ You know the probability of the left side is 1, and you can show that the probability of the middle term is strictly less than one by considering its complementary event. You can then use the inclusion-exclusion principle and independence of the two terms on the right to argue that the probability of the rightmost term is one, which is what you need.

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