[Math] Probability of seven men and four meals

combinatoricsprobability

I have a problem that goes like this:

7 people are at a restaurant. The restaurant has a menu which has four unique items from which the 7 men choose from. Each men orders one of the 4 meal options and gives their choice to the waiter. However, the waiter accidentally loses the paper that tells him what each person ordered. The waiter then tells the cook to just make whatever he wants and hope for the best (make 7 meals randomly choosing one of the 4 options for each person). What are the chances (probability) that each man actually receives what he ordered (basically that the group 7 items that were randomly made can be given such that each man can receive what he wanted)?

I saw a youtube video of someone trying to explain this problem and I wasn't quite convinced that the answer was (1/120) even though there are 120 different combinations the cook can make.

This is the video: His original problem is here, starting at 1:00 :youtube.com/watch?v=ILAGckNjXvo. And his solution is here at 2:15 : youtube.com/watch?v=E31aGpE8TH0.

What is the best way to approach this problem? Are the 120 combinations actually equally likely to be made by the cook?

Thanks

Best Answer

If the four meals are $A,B,C$, and $D$, we’re interested in the $4$-tuple $\langle a,b,c,d\rangle$, where $a$ is the number of $A$ meals, $b$ is the number of $B$ meals, and so on. Of course $a,b,c$, and $d$ must be non-negative, and $a+b+c+d=7$. The number of possible $4$-tuples is $$\binom{7+4-1}{4-1}=\binom{10}3=120\;,$$ as you already knew.

This is fine, if the cook chose one of these $4$-tuples at random with equal probability. If, on the other hand, he prepared a sequence of seven meals, choosing the type of each meal independently, then these $120$ combinations are not equally likely, and the probability of getting the right one is not $1/120$.

To see why these $120$ possible combinations of meals are not equally likely, pick one, $\langle a,b,c,d\rangle$. In how many different ways can the cook make this combination of meals? He makes them in some sequence. There are $\binom7a$ ways to choose which $a$ places in the sequence are $A$ meals. Then there are $\binom{7-a}b$ ways to choose which of the remaining $7-a$ places are $B$ meals. Continuing in the same vein, we see that there are $$\binom7a\binom{7-a}b\binom{7-a-b}c\binom{7-a-b-c}d\tag{1}$$ ways to make $a$ $A$ meals, $b$ $B$ meals, and so on.

Now simplify $(1)$: the last factor is $\binom{d}d=1$, so it’s $$\frac{7!}{a!(7-a)!}\cdot\frac{(7-a)!}{b!(7-a-b)!}\cdot\frac{(7-a-b)!}{c!(7-a-b-c)!}=\frac{7!}{a!b!c!d!}\;,$$ and you can easily verify that this multinomial coefficient depends on the specific values of $a,b,c$, and $d$. In particular, it’s $1$ when $a=7$ (or when $b,c$, or $d$ is $7$): by this procedure the cook is very unlikely to prepare $7$ identical meals. On the other hand, it’s $630$ when three of $a,b,c$, and $d$ are $2$ and the remaining one is $1$.