[Math] Probability of selecting 2 defective bulbs

binomial-coefficientsprobability

A box contains 14 bulbs of which 2 are defective. Two bulbs are taken at
random one-by-one without replacement. What is the probability that both bulbs are
defective?

The answer I've come up with is 7C1*7C6/14C7 which is roughly 0.01427. However, I have a feeling this isn't correct. Any help is appreciated!

Best Answer

You're close, and you have good thinking, but you're not there yet.

Let's think about this logically. What is the probability that the first bulb you pick is defective? $2/14$ (reduced to $1/7$). There are 2 defective bulbs and 14 possible bulbs.

So the probability you pick 1 defective bulb on the first try is 1/7, and we have that established. The probability you pick another defective bulb would be $(2-1)/(14-1)$, which can be reduced to $1/13$.

If you multiply both of these things together, you'll get the answer. The answer is $(1*1)/(13*7)$, which is equivalent to $1/91$, which doesn't reduce.

In conclusion, the answer is 1/91.