[Math] Probability of picking up one ball of each color

combinationscombinatoricspermutations

A box contains 6 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. A person draws 4 balls from the box at random. Let P be the probability that among the balls drawn there is at least one ball of each color. Find 455 * P.

My approach:
I reasoned that because we want at least 1 ball of each color, I could proceed like:
$\frac{6*5*4*12}{15 x 14x13x12}\quad X \quad455$

So first I can choose between the six red balls, then the 5 black balls and finally the 4 white balls. Then, since we already have 1 of each color, we choose from the remaining 12.

So with this, I got 20 as the answer. However, the answer is supposed to be 240. I understood the solution that was given, however, I wanted to know where my solution was flawed and how I could improve it.

Any help will be appreciated.

Best Answer

Personally, I find this method much simpler.

Red-white-black need to be drawn in 2-1-1 ,1-2-1 or 1-1-2 pattern, so simply apply the hypergeometric formula:

$$455\times \dfrac{{6\choose 2}{4\choose 1}{5\choose1}+{6\choose 1}{4\choose2}{5\choose 1} +{6\choose1}{4\choose 1}{5\choose 2}}{15\choose 4} = 240$$

NOTE

Make a note that whenever you try to "fractionate" the combinations, by fulfilling the conditions in instalments the way you did, you will always overcount.

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