[Math] probability of obtaining two even numbers throwing three dice

diceprobability

I have this problem from a text book, and the answer it gives for that probability is $\frac{25}{108}$.

I assumed that they are refering to the probability of obtaining two even and an odd. I created the sample space and counted all the points with two even and an odd using R since I also don't know how to use combinatorics for this case. I have obtained 81 so I suppose that the probability is $\frac{81}{216}=\frac{3}{8}$.

What I'm doing wrong?

Best Answer

The book is wrong and you are right!   To confirm:...

If you roll one fair dice you will obtain an even result with a probability of $1/2$.

If you roll three fair die, you will obtain two consecutive even results, then an odd result with a probability of $1/2^3$.

There are three such arrangements which yeild a result of two even and one odd, and they are all equally probable.   Thus the probability for obtaining two even and one odd result is $3/8$, which is also $81/216$.


However, there is an additional arrangement which is a result of three even numbers, which has the same probability as the other three arrangements.   So the probability for at least two even results is $4/8$, $108/216$, or $1/2$.

To confirm the result, hindsight shows that there is a equal probability for obtaining at least two even results as there is for obtaining at least two odd results, and that these events are exclusive and exhaustive.


Neither answer is $25/108$, nor should they be.