Probability of Dice Rolls – Calculating Specific Outcomes

diceprobability

I am trying to figure out how to do the math for something like this. The scenario:

  • $n = 4$
  • $x = 7$ (using d10s, where 0 = 10)
  • $m = 8$

In words, if I roll 8d10 (eight 10-sided dice) what is the probability of having four dice greater than or equal to 7 (where 0 is the greateest [10])

I have seen a lot of sites which will do the calculation where $n = 1$, but I want to make $n$ a variable.

I know the probability of a 'successful' role is 4/10.

I know that I could write out all the possible combinations and count the ones that meet the criteria, but I'm sure this can be done with math.

How would you calculate this?

Best Answer

Probability (in this case) is the ratio of desired outcomes to all outcomes. Let's count desired outcomes in your particular case (and by the way we derive a general formula to compute it).

Suppose you roll 4 dice and you have a total success - on every die you get "7 to 10". How many quadruplets of numbers "1 to 10" may cause it? It is not so difficult: $4 \cdot 4 \cdot 4 \cdot 4$ or $4 ^ 4$.

Then you roll the 4 remaining dice - but now you need a total failure - numbers 1 to 6 on every die. How many quadruplets is able to cause it? The answer is similar: $6 ^ 4$.

So for the first group of four dice to be totally successful and in the same time the second group of four dice to be totally unsuccessful - e. g. $(8, 8, 8, 8, 1, 1, 1, 1)$ - there is $4^4 \cdot 6^4$ possibilities.

But where is written that the first four dice have be successful (and in the same time the four others not)? We may select four successful dices by $_8 \mathop{C}_4 = 70$ ways. So all successful possibilities count $70 \cdot 4^4 \cdot 6^4$ which gives the result $23{.}224{.}320$.

So the general formula for the number of desired outcomes is
$$_n {\mathop{C}}_k \cdot p^k \cdot q^{n-k}$$

Note: Please don't forget to divide it by the number of all possibilities, i. e. by $(p + q)^n$ to compute the probability.