[Math] Probability of getting tail with a coin toss using 2 coins

probability

A person has 2 coins one normal and one with HEAD on both sides. Now I dont know which coin he picked but the first THREE tosses are HEADs. Now whats the probability of seeing a tail next.

I think since toss is independent event, at any point the probability is 1/4.

Prob to pick good coin * prob of tail + prob of bad coin * prob of tail
1/2 * 1/2 + 1/2 * 0 = 1/4

Can anyone confirm if this is right or if there is a different solution.

Best Answer

You had no prior information about which coin it was, so suppose they were equally likely.
Three coin tosses have come up heads. That would always happen with the second coin, but only happen once in eight with the first coin. So the second coin is now eight times more likely than the first coin.
Put the new probabilities of the two coins into your formula.