[Math] Probability of geometric Brownian motion

brownian motionprobabilityprobability theorystochastic-processes

I want to solve the following question: Let $X(t)$ be the price of JetCo stock at time $t$ years from the present. Assume that $X(t)$ is a geometric Brownian motion with zero drift and volatility $\sigma = 0.4/yr$. If the current price of JetCo stock is 8.00 USD, what is the probability that the price will be at least 8.40 USD six months from now.

Here is my attempt: Since $X(t)$ is a geometric Brownian motion, $\log(X(t))$ is a regular Brownian motion with zero drift and $\sigma = 0.4 / yr$. We want to find the probability that $\log(X(1/2)) \geq \log(8.40)$ given that $\log(X(0))= \log(8.00)$.

What can I do from here?

Best Answer

You are on the right track so far, but you have the drift wrong. The drift of $\log(X(t))$ is, from Ito's lemma, $-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2.$

After that you use the fact that since it's a brownian motion starting from $\log(8.0)$ the distribution is $$\log(X(t)) \sim N\left(\log(8)-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2t,\sigma^2t\right).$$ So let $Z$ be normal with mean $\log(8)-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)$ and variance $\sigma^2\left(\frac{1}{2}\right).$ To finish the problem, you need to compute $$ P(Z>\log(8.40)).$$

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