I am grade 11 and can't figure out probability very well, so please excuse me if this is trivial op for some.
so I am developing a program for a competition next Saturday and have run into an issue. Specs of the program: predict the outcome of a sport. I have chosen to use the EPL (English Premier League) and predict the outcome between any 2 given teams. I have recorded (in 5-6 hours) every game in the past season (2011-2012) with their score, win, loss, date, etc. I also have a summary of them, their average goals per game, average score per game, average goals lost per game, total goals, total goals lost, total draws, wins losses, etc. so I have all the information needed.
What I plan to do is compare the history of the matches between the 2 teams (there will only be 2 games), and then compare their current statistics and weight it accordingly.
My question is, how do I compare the figures to determine the probability of the winner, and their possible score? I have all the information at my disposal, but I can't seem to convert everything to ratios and then percentages to find a 'winner'.
Please help, any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Josh
Best Answer
This is a pretty good article explaining multiple-event probabilities: http://easycalculation.com/statistics/learn-multiple-event-probability.php