[Math] Probability for second sample – random selection without replacement

probability

I am reproducing a probability question verbatim. I am unable to correctly solve the problem.

Question:

A batch of 25 injection-molded parts contains 5 parts that have
suffered excessive shrinkage.

(a) If two parts are selected at random, and without replacement, what
is the probability that the second part selected is one with excessive
shrinkage?

(b) If three parts are selected at random, and without
replacement, what is the probability that the third part selected is
one with excessive shrinkage?

My Answer:

a). 5C2/25C2 + 20C1/25C1 * 5C1/25C1 = 29/150

b). Didn't try to solve as my answer to part (a) is wrong

Correct Answer:

a) 0.2

b) 0.2

What are different ways to approach solving this kind of problem ?

Best Answer

I will try to reach unto you a new way of thinking.

Suppose that all parts are given randomly a distinct number from $\{1,2,\cdots,25\}$.

What is the probability that e.g. part numbered $17$ is one with excessive shrinkage?

It is $\frac5{25}=\frac15=0.2$ and this also for parts with other numbers. Every number has the same probability on this and $5$ of the $25$ parts are "gifted".

In (a) and (b) you are somehow giving numbers too. However in (a) you stop this if after giving $2$ numbers (the first selected gets number $1$, the second gets number $2$...) and in (b) after giving $3$ numbers. Nothing stops you from going on with the numbering until you reach $25$.


You can also think of $25$ numbered parts. Then $5$ of the numbers are randomly chosen and get the stamp "with excessive shrinkage". What is the probability then number $17$ is among those $5$? Same answer.


Take care of it that you master this way of thinking. It will bring you great profit in the study of probabilities.