[Math] PMF of number of heads of 4 coin tosses

probabilityrandom variablesstatistics

Let X equal the number of heads in four independent flips of a coin. Using
certain assumptions, determine the pmf of X and compute the probability that X
is equal to an odd number.

I initially thought that x could equal {0,1,2,3,4}. And I also initially thought that the probability of getting 0 heads is just as likely as getting 4 heads given that we use a normal fair coin. I don't know if this is right though. Also I'm very lost on how to compute the probability that X is an odd number (getting 1 or 3 heads out of 4 flips).

Thanks for everyone's help.

Best Answer

You are correct that the probability of 0 heads is equal to the probability of 4 heads -- there is one way to get each, and each coin flip has equal probability so the probability for each case is

$$\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{16}$$

The probability of getting 1, 2, or 3 heads is different. For example, there are four ways to get 1 heads:

HTTT

THTT

TTHT

TTTH

Each of these cases has probability $1/16$ as before, but there are 4 of them so the total probability of getting 1 heads is $4/16$.

It is a similar procedure to count the number of ways to get 2 or 3 heads. More generally, the number of ways to get $x$ heads out of $n$ coin tosses is given by the binomial coefficient:

$$n \choose x$$

To generalize even further, this coin tossing experiment follows the binomial distribution. If the probability of tossing a heads is $p$ then the PMF is given by

$$P(X = x) = {n \choose x} p^{x}(1-p)^{n-x}$$

In this case, for a fair coin $p = 1/2$ so the distribution simplifies a bit.

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