[Math] Picking Unique Balls from a Bin

discrete mathematicsprobabilitysolution-verification

Problem:

We have a bin with 5 red balls, 7 green balls, and 9 blue balls. We
draw 3 balls out of the bin, without replacement. What is the probability that no two of the three balls have the same color?

My Answer:

Note that the probability of no two balls having the same color is equivalent to all three balls having different colors. The probability of this event is
$$\frac{5}{21} \cdot \frac{7}{20} \cdot \frac{9}{19} = \frac {3}{76}$$
Because on the first step we want to pick a red ball, which has probability of $\frac 5{21}$, on the second step we want to pick a green ball, and on the third step we want to pick a blue ball. The order in which we pick the balls doesn't matter, which is reflected in the (associative) multiplication: $5/21 \cdot 7/20 = 7/21 \cdot 5/20$, etc.

Is this right? I'm sceptical of my answer. I wrote a script to test my answer, and it appears that the probability should be just a little under $\frac 1 4$, which sounds much more reasonable.

Best Answer

You need to multiply your answer by $6$.

Your probability is for a red ball followed by a green ball followed by a blue ball. The probability of a green ball followed by a blue ball followed by a red ball would be $\displaystyle \frac{7}{21} \cdot \frac{9}{20} \cdot \frac{5}{19}$ which is also $ \dfrac {3}{76}$ and altogether there are $3!=6$ possible orderings.

This would give $\dfrac{9}{38}\approx 0.2368$ as the probability of three different colours in any order.