[Math] Odds of winning 3 of next 5, given 60% odds of winning each game

probabilityprobability distributionsprobability theory

Two teams play a series of baseball games, team A and team B. The team that wins 3 of 5 games wins the series.
Theam A has a probability of 60% of winning in each game, after what number of matche is the series more likely to end?

I am stuck with this question, I have tried with the disjoint by calculation the event of every possibility but I did not find a specific numbe of matche to be played.

Thank you.

Best Answer

Calculate the probability that the series ends after 3 games (AAA, BBB). Calculate the probability that it ends after 4 games (AABA, ABAA, BAAA, BBAB, BABB, ABBB). The remainder is the probability that it ends after 5 games. Look which of the 3 probabilities is the biggest.