[Math] Math probability combination explanation

probabilityprobability distributionsprobability theory

A group of four components is known to contain two defectives. An inspector tests the components one at a time until the two defectives are located. once she locates the two defectives, she stops testing, but the second defective is tested to ensure accuracy. let Y denote the number of the test on which the second defective is found. Find the probability distribution for Y.

I know the answers are
P[2] = 2/4 1/3 = 1/6
P[3] = 2c1
(2/4 *2/3) * 1/2 = 1/3
P[4] = 3c2*(2/4 * 1/3 * 2/2) *1/1 = 1/2

But could someone please explain where those fractions came from?

Best Answer

For $Y=2$: (both defectives are found in the first two inspections) $$P(Y=2)=\text{(prob. of first defective) } \cdot \text{(prob. of second defective) }=\frac{2}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{3}.$$ The reason is: the prob.e of finding the first defective is $2$ out of total of $4$ components. Now once that is found there is only one defective left, hence the prob. of finding the second one now is $1$ out of a total of $3$.

For $Y=3$. You need to break it into two cases: $GDD$ and $DGD$. Where $GDD$ means the first component tested was "G"ood but the second was "D"efective and the third was "D"efective as well. You can guess what $DGD$ means. Observe that there cannot be $DDG$ because then the test would have ended with two trials only.

So $$P(Y=3)=\underbrace{\binom{2}{1}}_{\text{choosing how to place $G$}}\quad \underbrace{\left(\frac{2}{4}\cdot\frac{2}{3}\right)}_{\text{prob of $GD$}} \quad \cdot \quad \underbrace{\frac{1}{2}}_{\text{prob. of having the last component $D$}}.$$

I hope this will help.

NOTE:

For $Y=4$: you need to have the last tested component be $D$ and the first three should have 2$G's$ and 1$D$.

choosing a place for the first $D$: $\binom{3}{1}$, now fill in the details..