[Math] Markov Chain – Snakes and Ladders

conditional probabilitymarkov chainsprobabilityprobability distributions

A simple game of snakes and ladders is played on a board of nine squares. At each turn a player tosses a fair coin and advances one or two places according to whether the coin lands heads or tails. If you land at the foot of a ladder you climb to the top, but if you land at the head of a snake you slide down the tail. how many turns on averages does it take to complete the game? What is the probability that a player who reaches the middle square will complete the game without slipping back to square 1?

This is a very famous Markov chain question. The original problem and the its image is here. it's the problem 1.3.3 in Markov Chains.

We can represent the chain with the following table
$$\begin{array}{ccc} \text{Start Square} & \text{If Head go to} & \text{If Tail Go to} \\
1&2&5\\
2&5&4 \\
3&4&5\\
4&5&1\\
5&1&7\\
6&7&4\\
7&4&9\\
8&9&9\\
9&9&9
\end{array}$$

Best Answer

There are some general methods, but at that stage in the book I think you're supposed to work it out manually.

Let $p_i$ be the probability of reaching square nine before square one given that I'm on square $i$.

I need to come up with an equation involving $p_5$ that I can solve. From square five I can reach only squares four five and seven before I reach square one or nine.

Looking at the table we may write $$\begin{array}{rcl} p_4 &=& \tfrac 12 p_5 \\ p_5 &=& \tfrac 12 p_7 \\ p_7 &=& \tfrac 12 p_4 + \tfrac 12 \end{array}$$

It remains to solve this system of equations, which you shouldn't have much trouble with.

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