[Math] Markov Chain: Expected number of visit within certain time period

markov chainsprobability

I am a student trying to learn more about probability,especially that of Markov Chain so I apologize if I maybe very inexperience on the topic. I am trying to get the expected number of visit a state in Markov chain is visited within a certain time.
Currently, I have the steady state probability of each state. If I understand correctly, steady state probability of state "a" (s_a) is the probability that the chain will be at state "a" within a given time step.

So is it correct if I want to find the expected number of time the chain will be in state "a" given a certain amount of time (let's say 100 time step), I would just do 100*s_a?

I did some searching and found some answers, which did not really answer my question. Any help is greatly appreciate.

Thank you

Best Answer

I found some relevant results in Kemeny & Snell's book "Finite Markov Chains", Chapter IV, Theorem 4.3.4.

Define $$ Z:=I+\sum_{i=1}^\infty (P^i-A) $$ where $I$ is the identity matrix, $P$ is the transition probability matrix, and $A$ is a matrix with the stationary distribution $s$ in each row. Then, assume that you start the chain with an initial distribution $t$ over the states, where $t$ might not be identical to $s$.

Let $M(b,a,n)$ be the expected number of times the Markov chain hits the state $a$ in the first $n$ steps, given that it is started in state $b$. Let $M(n)$ be the matrix with elements $M(b,a,n)$, where $b$ is the row and $a$ the column index. Then, you can show that

$$ M(n) - n A = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} (P^i-A). $$

In other words, the expected number of times you hit $a$ depends not only on the initial state $b$ (and hence on the initial distribution), but also on the the fundamental matrix $Z$ of the markov chain. While the effect of the initial distribution becomes negligible for large $n$, the effect of the fundamental matrix remains.

Note that if the Markov chain is in fact an iid process, then $P=A$ and $Z=I$. Then $M(a)=nA$, and you get exactly an expected value of $ns_a$, as you expected. The difference is thus due to the temporal statistical dependence of the Markov chain.

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