[Math] In layman’s terms: What is a stochastic process

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I'm a software engineering student, so I don't have probability theory in my career, but I hear people near my circle talk about stochastic processes very often. Could someone explain in simple words what these are?

E: I'll make myself a bit more precise. I've heard people describe a series of events via a stochastic process, I've read the wiki, and I don't understand how the 'collection of random variables' part comes to play: what does it mean to represent something via a non-deterministic process?

Could somebody provide a concrete example of a representation of something via a stochastic process (and how it defers from a deterministic process)?

Best Answer

Very roughly speaking, you can think of a stochastic process as a process that evolves in a random way. The randomness can be involved in when the process evolves, and also how it evolves.

A very simple example of a stochastic process is the decay of a radioactive sample (with only one parent and one daughter product). Initially, it has some large number $N$ of atoms of the parent element. Over time, the number of such atoms decreases, always by $1$, but at random moments in time. The state of the system can be represented by $k$, the number of atoms of the parent element present at a given moment in time. Initially, $k = N$, but eventually, it will fall to zero.

In this process, when the state changes is random, but not how it changes. In other processes, such as a discrete-time random walk, when the state changes is deterministic, but how it changes is random. And there are other processes in which both when the state changes and how it changes are random.

Interestingly, in many cases, stochastic processes are used to model situations that may not have inherent randomness. For instance, Brownian motion is the result of forces that could, in principle, be determined precisely (if we ignored quantum mechanics). However, the number of objects in a normal system is so large that such an analysis would be intractable. Instead, we model the motion of objects using a stochastic process, and thereby obtain some insight into the behavior of such systems (for instance, the statistical behavior of a given particle over time) that we could not begin to with a deterministic approach.

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