[Math] In how many ways can a coat be chosen such that exactly one person picks up the correct coat

permutationsprobability

There are n people at a party. At the end they each take a coat at random.
a) How many ways can coats be chosen such that no person picks up their own coat/what is the probability that no person picks up their own coat?

b) In how many ways can a coat be chosen such that at least one person picks up the correct coat?

c)In how many ways can a coat be chosen such that exactly one person picks up the correct coat?

For part a) I have used d(n)=n!*sum from k=0 to infinity((-1)^k)/k!), however am unsure on how to calculate the probability that no person picks up their own coat, and how to go about answering b) and c).

Any help would be appreciated!

Thanks

Best Answer

If the coats are distributed at random so everybody has one coat then there are $n!$ possible distributions.

For (a) everybody having the wrong coat, you are looking at derangements and you have your expression, though this should be over a finite sum: $ \displaystyle d(n)=n!\sum_0^n \frac{(-1)^k}{k!}$ though I prefer to use $d(n)=\text{round}\left[\frac{n!}{e}\right]$. The probability is then $\frac{d(n)}{n!}$.

For (b) at least one person having the correct coat, this is the complement event of (a) and so very easy.

For (c) exactly one person having the correct coat, to count the possibilities you need to identify the individual with the correct coat and then count the derangements among the others, making the probability $\frac{n\,d(n-1)}{n!}$

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