Probability – Improving Von Neumann’s Unfair Coin Solution

probabilitypuzzlerecreational-mathematics

If a cheat has altered a coin to prefer one side over another (a
biased coin), the coin can still be used for fair results by changing
the game slightly. John von Neumann gave the following
procedure:

Toss the coin twice. If the results match, start over, forgetting both
results. If the results differ, use the first result, forgetting the
second.

Are there ways of doing this (can we tweak this procedure) to reduce the number of expected flips needed (for a realization of heads or tails)?

Best Answer

I think it depends on knowing the exact bias of the coin. For a simple example, if you know the coin comes up heads exactly one-third of the time (in the long run), then you can flip the coin twice, call it heads if you get heads once, tails if you get tails twice, do-over if you get heads twice. You get a decision 8 times out of 9, leading to a lower number of expected flips than for the von Neumann solution.

EDIT: There's a very nice discussion of the problem, especially the case where you don't know the bias of the coin, at http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/~michaelm/coinflipext.pdf [link updated 19/07/12]

MORE EDIT: There's a fair bit of literature on this problem. Here's a sampling of what's out there:

MR0723740 (85f:60020) Stout, Quentin F.; Warren, Bette; Tree algorithms for unbiased coin tossing with a biased coin, Ann. Probab. 12 (1984), no. 1, 212–222.

MR1763468 (2001f:65009) Juels, Ari; Jakobsson, Markus; Shriver, Elizabeth; Hillyer, Bruce K.; How to turn loaded dice into fair coins, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 46 (2000), no. 3, 911–921. 65C10 (94A60)

MR1763481 (2001a:65006) Ryabko, Boris Ya.; Matchikina, Elena; Fast and efficient construction of an unbiased random sequence, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 46 (2000), no. 3, 1090–1093. 65C10 (65C05)

MR1763482 (2001d:68177) Näslund, Mats; Russell, Alexander; Extraction of optimally unbiased bits from a biased source, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 46 (2000), no. 3, 1093–1103. 68Q99

MR2245123 (2007d:94019) Cicalese, Ferdinando; Gargano, Luisa; Vaccaro, Ugo; A note on approximation of uniform distributions from variable-to-fixed length codes, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 52 (2006), no. 8, 3772–3777. 94A29 (94A45)

MR2300366 (2008b:65010) Pae, Sung-il; Loui, Michael C.; Randomizing functions: simulation of a discrete probability distribution using a source of unknown distribution, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 52 (2006), no. 11, 4965–4976. 65C10 (68W20)

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