[Math] If you roll a die two times, what is the probability the sum of the upturned faces equals $7$

combinatoricsprobability

If you roll a die two times, what is the probability the sum of the upturned faces equals $7$?

I can answer this question if I consider the order of the rolled numbers relevant. However, when I disregard the order I get a wrong answer.

My reasoning: we roll the die two times and each roll there are $6$ possible outcomes, so we have $$\binom{2+6-1}{2}=21$$ possible outcomes. There are three scenarios in which the sum of the upturned faces equals 7, namely: $\{1,6\}$, $\{2,5\}$ and $\{3,4\}$. That means the probability the sum of the upturned faces equals $7$ is $\frac{3}{21}=\frac{1}{7}$. It should be $\frac{1}{6}$.

Where am I going wrong?

Best Answer

Since the two die rolls are independent, it should come as no surprise that there are $6\cdot 6 = 36$ possible pairs of die rolls.

Of those rolls, only the following pairs have a sum of $7$: $$(1,6),\ (2,5),\ (3, 4),\ (4, 3),\ (5, 2),\ (6, 1)$$

Naturally, then, the likelihood of our two die rolls summing to $7$ would be: $$\frac 6{36} = \frac 16 \approx 16.6\%$$