[Math] I pick a number n, if you guess it, I pay you $n. What is the fair value of the game

expected valuegame theoryprobability

This is from Mark Joshi's classic book. The full question is:

"I pick a number n from 1 to 100. If you guess correctly, I pay you $n and zero otherwise. How much would you pay to play this game?"

Joshi offers a solution, but I am struggling with it. From what I understand, the person picking the number has incentive to pick lower numbers as this will result in lower payoffs. However, low numbers will likely be selected by the player so the number should not be too low. Joshi suggests the following as the expectation of the game:

$$\Big(\sum_{i=1}^{100}\frac{1}{i}\Big)^{-1}$$

Not sure if anyone could with the intuition on how the solution was obtained. I guess it arises as the initial person picking the number should pick with decaying probability going from 1 to 100?

Thanks

Best Answer

The intuition is that in an optimal strategy, the picker should be indifferent to what the guesser chooses.

Suppose we just take $n=3$ for simplicity. Suppose the picker chooses $1$ with probability $p_1$, chooses $2$ with probability $p_2$, and $3$ with probability $p_3$. The selection of $p_1, p_2, p_3$ constitutes the picker's strategy.

The indifference criterion means that $1p_1=2p_2=3p_3$. However, also $p_1+p_2+p_3=1$. To solve, plug in and get $$p_1+\frac{1}{2}p_1+\frac{1}{3}p_1=1$$ Hence, $p_1=(1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{3})^{-1}$. This is also the average amount that the guesser wins, regardless of which number guessed. This is also the expected value of the game.