[Math] How to calculate Full joint probability distribution

artificial intelligenceprobability

This is a past exam question, I did it wrong in the exam, I'm reviewing it right now.
The question is to compute the full joint probability of the problem below:

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I draw the full joint distribution table already

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I know for each entry I need to calculate something like A^B^AB^BA, but what kind of rule should I apply to get the result? by given P(A)=0.8 P(B)=0.5 P(AB) if A and B both True = 0.9 P(BA) if A and B both true = 0.9, so P(A^B^AB^BA)= 0.8*0.5*0.9*0.9 =0.324 is that right?
Also the other question : compute P(B|A, AB,-BA), I think when I finish the table I could get the answer right ?

Really need some help, Thank you.

Best Answer

$\checkmark$ Yes.

Each entry is something like: $$\mathsf P(A\cap \neg B\cap A_B\cap \neg B_A)= \mathsf P( A)\,\mathsf P(\neg B)\,\mathsf P(A_B\mid A, \neg B)\,\mathsf P(\neg B_A\mid A, \neg B)$$

The rule is the product rule for conditional probabilities.

For any events $X,Y$ then $\mathsf P(X\cap Y)=\mathsf P(X)\mathsf P(Y\mid X)$, and if $X$ and $Y$ are independent then also $\mathsf P(Y\mid X)=\mathsf P(Y)$.

When you have the table: $$\mathsf P(B\mid A, A_B,-B_A) = \dfrac{\mathsf P(A\cap B\cap A_B\cap \neg B_A)}{\mathsf P(A\cap B\cap A_B\cap \neg B_A)+\mathsf P(A\cap \neg B\cap A_B\cap \neg B_A)}$$

Using the Product Rule and the Law of Total Probability.

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