[Math] Gambling strategy for coin-flip with 51% chance to win.

gamblingmartingales

So I'm curious if there is a decent gambling strategy for this site I play on.

Essentially it's a coin flip where you can have anywhere from 49% to 51% chance to win against the other player.

Assume you can choose to have 51% odds, and that your winnings will be equal to your bet (x2 on win).

Last time I played I started with 1 dollar and used the martingale system. It worked great for a while, as whenever I lost and bet 2 dollars I won. However, eventually as expected around the time I reached $11 I lost too many in a row and struck out.

The last time I played I didn't pay much attention to my odds, but I have the ability to grab ~51% every bet.

So assuming all this, should I stick with martingale? Or just bet the minimum ($1) every time, only taking 51% odds and hoping that the 1% edge averages out to a profit?

Is there any strategy I can implement at all?

P.S. Unlimited money is not assumed since I start with only a few bucks at most.

Best Answer

You should start as low as possible to reduce volatility given your situation.

Then you can gradually move up towards the Kelly strategy:

$$f^{*} = \frac{bp - q}{b}$$

where

  • $f^*$ is how much to bet as a fraction of your bankroll
  • $b$ is the net odds, ("$b$ to $1$"). For a $\$1$ bet how much you get back on top of the $\$1$ you bet.
  • $p$ is the probability of winning
  • $q$ is the probability of losing
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