[Math] Find the sum of a probability of dice roll that is prime.

probabilitysequences-and-series

Consider rolling n fair dice. Let p(n) be the probability that the product
of the faces is prime when you roll n dice. For example, when n = 1, one die is
rolled and the probability that the result is prime is
p(1) = ${\frac{|\{2,3,5\}|}{|\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}|}}$=$\frac{1}{2}$

When n = 2, two dice are rolled and the probability that the product of the
two dice is prime is
p(2)= $\frac{|\{(1,2)(2,1),(1,3),(3,1)(1,5)(5,1)\}|}{|36|}=\frac{1}{6}$

When n = 3, three dice are rolled and the probability that the product of the
upturned face values is prime is p(3) = $\frac{1}{24}$ .
Find the infinite sum of p(n) (when n starts at 0)
(Hint: Consider differentiating both sides of the infinite geometric series:
infinite sum of r^n( when n starts at 0)= $\frac{1}{(1-r)}$ when abs(r)<1)

I can differentiate the two sides of the geometric series but I'm lost regarding what to do after that. I don't fully understand the question.

Best Answer

You will get a prime product if exactly one of the faces is prime and the rest are all 1. The probability (binomial distribution) that you will have a prime product with n dice is $\displaystyle \binom{n}{1}.(\frac{1}{2})^1.(\frac{1}{6})^{n-1}$

So you need to find $\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}\sum_{n=0}^\infty n(\frac{1}{6})^{n-1}$

Replace $\frac{1}{6}$ by $x$. Now consider the geometric sum $1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + ... x^n + ...$. What happens when you differentiate it term by term wrt $x$? Especially consider what happens to the general term $x^n$.

Now find an expression for the geometric sum in terms of $x$ and differentiate that wrt $x$. Finally substitute $x=\frac{1}{6}$. That should give you the required sum.

Post a comment if you still have difficulty.