[Math] Find n in binomial distribution

binomial distributionprobability

Transportation to school for a rural county’s seventy-six children is provided by a fleet of four buses. Drivers are chosen on a day-to-day basis and come from a pool of local farmers who have agreed to be “on call.” What is the smallest number of drivers who need to be in the pool if the county wants to have at least a 95% probability on any given day that all the buses will run? Assume that each driver has an 80% chance of being available if contacted.

This question is in the section of binomial distribution.
So I think it is P(X > or = 4) = 0.95 where we try to find n (independent trials) but i am obviously missing something.
Please help

The answer at the back of book is 7

Best Answer

Let $X$ be the random variable counting the number of bus drivers which would respond to a call on a particular day. If $4$ or more bus drivers respond positively, then all four buses will be operational and all children get picked up to go to school.

Let $n$ be the number of bus drivers (currently unknown).

$$.95\leq Pr(X\geq 4) = Pr(X=4 \text{ or }X=5 \text{ or } \cdots \text{ or } X=n)\\ = 1 - Pr(X=0\text{ or }X=1 \text{ or }X=2 \text{ or }X=3 \text{ or }X=4)\\ =1 - \binom{n}{0}.8^n + \binom{n}{1}.8^{n-1} .2^1 + \binom{n}{2} .8^{n-2}.2^2 + \binom{n}{3}.8^{n-3}.2^3$$

This can be graphed or solved via a computer program for an exact value of $n$ where equality with $.95$ is achieved. Else, you can guess and check different values of $n$ or consult a table to find the smallest such whole number $n$ such that the expression is greater or equal to $.95$.

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