[Math] Find an unbiased estimator function (Poisson)

parameter estimationprobabilitystatistics

I think it is pretty easy to find an unbiased estimator for a regular distribution, whether it be Poisson or Gamma or something else. For example, the unbiased estimator (Poisson from a random sample of size $n$) for $\lambda$ would be $\overline{Y}$.

However, now suppose you have a function to find the number of failings of a computer system, and it is $C=2Y+Y^2$.

We can easily see that $E(C)=E(2Y + Y^2) = 3\lambda + \lambda^2$. But now if we want to find a function of $\overline{Y}$ that is an unbiased estimator of $E(C)$, how would you go about that?

I would think that you need to find $\hat{\theta}$, such that $E(\hat{\theta})=3\lambda + \lambda^2$, but I am a little confused as to whether or not that is accurate.

Any help on this problem would be greatly appreciated! Thank you very much.

Best Answer

Recall that for every random variable $X$ Poisson with parameter $\lambda$ one has $E(X)=\lambda$ and $E(X^2)=\lambda^2+\lambda$ hence $\mathrm{var}(X)=\lambda$. Thus, if $(Y_k)$ is i.i.d. Poisson $\lambda$ and $\bar Y=\frac1n\sum\limits_{k=1}^nY_k$ then $\bar Y$ is an unbiased estimator of $\lambda$ since $E(\bar Y)=\lambda$.

Likewise, $\mathrm{var}(\bar Y)=\frac1{n}\mathrm{var}(Y_1)=\frac1n\lambda$ hence $E(\bar Y^2)=\frac1n\lambda+\lambda^2$. Solving for $\theta=3\lambda+\lambda^2$ yields $\theta=E(\bar Y^2)+(3-\frac1n)E(\bar Y)$ hence an unbiased estimator of $\theta$ is $$ \Theta=\bar Y^2+\left(3-\frac1n\right)\bar Y. $$

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