[Math] Fair coin, three consecutive heads, p(TAILS=1)

probability

Stuck on this question.

The experiment of tossing a fair coin until three consecutive heads appear is performed. Let X be the number of tosses, and Y be the number of tails that appear. Find the probability p(Y = 1).

I tried listing out the possibilities where Y=1:

THHH
HTHHH
HHTHHH

So I thought maybe it's 3/(2^6) but that's not listed as an answer.

Best Answer

If the first toss is a T, then the event $Y=1$ happens if the first $4$ tosses are THHH. This has probability $\frac{1}{16}$.

If the first toss is a H, then $Y=1$ can happen in $2$ ways: (i) the second toss is a T and then we get HHH or (ii) the second toss is a H, the next is a T, and then we get HHH. Note that (i) has probability $\frac{1}{32}$ and (ii) has probability $\frac{1}{64}$.

Add up our three probabilities, and simplify.

Remark: Your idea was right, there was just a little error in computing the probabilities.