[Math] Expected values of a dice game with a 30-sided die and a 20-sided die.

discrete mathematicsprobabilityprobability theory

Two people, $A$ and $B$, have a $30$-sided and $20$-sided die, respectively. Each rolls their die, and the person with the highest roll wins. ($B$ also wins in the event of a tie.) The loser pays the winner the value on the winner's die.

Question:

  1. What is expected value for player $A$?
  2. How does the expected value of the game for player $A$ change when player $B$ can re-roll?
  3. How much is it worth for player $A$ to get a re-roll in this scenario, where player $B$ can have the re-roll?
  4. If you remove player $A$ re-roll. How many re-rolls does player $B$ need in order for him to be a favorite in the game?

I took the average score for player $A$ to be $15.5$ and for player $B$ to be $10.5$. I am assuming this to be expected return for player $A$ so $15.5 – 10.5 = 5$. We also need to take into account when $X = Y$ when $A$ loses to $B$ on draw so $5 – (7/20) = 4.65$.

What I do not understand is how to factor in for when player $B$ can re-roll. I understand that $B$ would re-roll if he gets a value $< 10.5$ which happens $\frac 12$ of the time. Nor can I seem to grasp how to set up the follow-up questions.

Best Answer

1. What is the expected value for player $A$?

Let $A, B$ be the players' rolls and $W$ be player $A$'s winnings. Then $$ \begin{align} \tag{1} \mathbb{E}W &= \mathbb{E}[W|A \leq 20]\cdot\mathbb{P}\{A \leq 20\} \ +\ \mathbb{E}[W|A > 20]\cdot\mathbb{P}\{A > 20\} \end{align} $$ just by simply conditioning on the event $\{A \leq 20\}$ so far.

  1. Now $\mathbb{E}[W|A \leq 20]$ would be zero if not for the fact that ties are settled in player $B$'s favor: $$ \mathbb{E}[W|A \leq 20] = -\frac{1+20}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{20} $$ as ties happen with probability $\frac{1}{20}$ and player $B$ wins $\frac{1+20}{2}$ per tie, on average.
  2. When $A > 20$, player $A$ always wins, and wins $$ \mathbb{E}[W|A > 20] = \frac{21+30}{2} $$ on average.

Putting it all together, $$ \begin{align} \mathbb{E}W &= -\frac{21}{40}\frac{2}{3} + \frac{51}{2}\frac{1}{3} \\ &= \frac{163}{20}\\ &= 8.15 \end{align} $$ as was derived in previous answers. So far so good.

2. How does the expected value of the game for player $A$ change when player $B$ can re-roll?

Here the wording becomes rather more vague. Nonetheless I believe both previous answers misinterpret the problem statement. Allowing player $B$ a re-roll does not mean $B$ chooses the maximum of two rolls: that would be worded as "player $B$ is allowed the greater of two rolls". Allowing player $B$ a re-roll means that if player $B$ is unhappy with her first roll she may substitute it with a second roll, which may turn out to be less than her first. The ambiguity is in whether the re-roll is offered before or after player $B$ has seen player $A$'s roll. I consider only the first case, as it permits us to offer numbers instead of functions (of player $A$'s roll) as answers to this question, and to question 4.

Clearly, player $B$ will re-roll after rolling $b$ or less iff $$ \tag{2} \mathbb{E}[W|B=b] > \mathbb{E}[W] = 8.15 $$ as she wishes to minimize $W$. At this point we may as well calculate: $$ \begin{align} \mathbb{E}[W|B=b] &= \mathbb{E}[W|B=b, A \leq b]\cdot\mathbb{P}\{A \leq b\} \ +\ \mathbb{E}[W|B=b, A > b]\cdot\mathbb{P}\{A > b\} \\ &=-b\frac{b}{30}+\frac{(b+1)+30}{2}\frac{30-b}{30} \\ &= \frac{-3b^2-b+930}{60}. \end{align} $$ Let $b^*$ be the maximum $b$ such that inequality $(2)$ holds. (I found $b^* = 11$. Is there a faster, less error-prone method of calculating this part?)

Let $W_1$ be the value of the game when player $B$ can re-roll. Then \begin{align} \mathbb{E}[W_1] &= \mathbb{E}W + \frac{b^*}{20}\big(\mathbb{E}W - \mathbb{E}[W|B \leq b^*]\big)\\ \end{align} as we modify the old $\mathbb{E}W$ by adding the effect of the re-roll. I express it in this way because $$\mathbb{E}[W|B \leq b^*]$$ is easy to calculate quickly as it expands just like equation $(1)$ does, by pretending player $B$ is rolling a $b^*$-sided die.

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