[Math] Expected Value – Finding the Price of a Raffle Ticket

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This question has been bugging me for a while now and I want to know where I'm going wrong.

There are $20$ tickets in a raffle with one prize. What should each ticket cost if the prize is \$80 and the expected gain to the organizer is \$30?

Now I can get the right answer by adding \$80 and \$30 then dividing by the 20 tickets to get \$5.50 per ticket, but when I use the expected value equation such as $\frac{1}{20}(p-80) + \frac{19}{20}p = 30$ to find the price of a ticket I get a much larger value which is indeed incorrect. What am I doing wrong in my equation?

Best Answer

If $p$ is the price per ticket, then $\frac 1{20} (p−\$80)+\frac{19}{20} p$ is the expected return for selling one ticket.

You want the expected return for selling twenty tickets to equal $\$30$.   Fortunately the Linearity of Expectation means this is:

$$20\times(\frac 1{20} (p−\$80)+\frac{19}{20} p)=\$30 $$

This yields $p=\$5.50$

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