[Math] Expected Sum Value

probability

I had this question on a test and though I know the answer is 150 I have no idea how to prove it. The questions is:

"A box contains 99 balls, numbered from 1 to 99. Suppose we take, without replacement, 3 balls of that box and sum its values. What is the expected value of the sum?"

Best Answer

Let $X_1$ be the number on the first ball, $X_2$ be the number on the second ball, and $X_3$ be the number on the third ball. In other words, $X_k$ is the number on the $k$th ball drawn from the box, for $k \in \{1,2,3\}.$

Consider $E[X_k].$ This is the expected value of $X_k$ at the start of the experiment; it is a prediction about $X_k$ that is made before any balls are drawn. At that point in time, all you can say about the $k$th ball to be drawn is that it is equally likely to be any of the $99$ balls in the box. The expected value of that distribution is $E[X_k] = 50.$

Of course, as soon as you draw the first ball, the probabilities for the second ball change: if $X_1=17,$ then $P[X_2 = 17] = 0,$ the other balls become slightly more likely to be the second one drawn, and $E[X_2\mid X_1=17] \neq E[X_2].$ This tells us that $X_1$ and $X_2$ are not independent. But everything up to this point in this paragraph is just a red herring when it comes to the problem we have to solve, because it turns out we have no need to know anything about $E[X_2\mid X_1]$; when we consider what the second ball will be, we just need to know $E[X_2].$

The theorem of the linearity of expectation tells us that $$ E[X_1 + X_2 + X_3] = E[X_1] + E[X_2] + E[X_3] $$ regardless of whether $X_1,$ $X_2,$ and $X_3$ are independent. Hence we can apply that theorem to this problem: $$ E[X_1 + X_2 + X_3] = 50 + 50 + 50 = 150. $$

Related Question