[Math] expected payoff of dice game (paying for every next roll)

dicemarkov chainsprobability

I am thinking of a variation of the dice game, where

one has the option to throw a die unlimited number of times.The first throw is free and every next throw costs 1 dollar. One will earn the face value of the die and has the option to stop after each throw and walk away with the money earned. The earnings are not additive. What is the expected payoff of this game?

If I calculate the expected value as

for 2 rolls as  (1/6)(3+4+5+6)  +   (1/3) (3.5-1) = 3.83$ 
for 3 rolls as  (1/6)(3+4+5+6) +   (1/3) (3.83-1) = 3.94$
for 4 rolls as  (1/6)(3+4+5+6) +   (1/3) (3.94-1) = 3.98$
for 5 rolls as  (1/6)(3+4+5+6) +   (1/3) (3.98-1) = 3.99$

it asymptotically tends to 4

Is this approach correct?

Shoudn't the player go bankrupt after 7 rolls (negative expectation)?

Best Answer

Your calculation is correct.

I'd do it this way.

Let $E_n$ be the expected net if we roll until we get $n$ or greater.

Suppose $n=6$. We roll once. If it's a $6$, we are done. If not, we are in exactly the situation we started in, except that our "first" roll isn't free: it cost $1$ dollar. Hence $$ E_6 = \frac{1}{6}(6) + \frac{5}{6}(E_6-1).$$ Solving, we find $E_6=1$. (Alternatively: on average it takes $6$ rolls to get a $6$, and all but the first roll is free, so $E_6=6-5=1$.)

Similarly, \begin{align} E_5 &= \frac{2}{6}\left(\frac{5+6}{2} \right) + \frac{4}{6}(E_5-1) & \text{ so } &E_5=\frac{7}{2}=3.5 \\ E_4 &= \frac{3}{6} \left( \frac{4+5+6}{3} \right) + \frac{3}{6}(E_4-1) & \text{ so } &E_4=4 \\ E_3 &= \frac{4}{6} \left( \frac{3+4+5+6}{4} \right) + \frac{2}{6}(E_3-1) & \text{ so} &E_3=4 \\ E_2 &= \frac{5}{6} \left( \frac{2+3+4+5+6}{5} \right) +\frac{1}{6}(E_2-1) & \text{ so } &E_2=\frac{19}{5} = 3.8 \\ \end{align} and, of course, $E_1=3.5$.

So the best strategy appears to be "roll until $4$ or more" with an expected net of $4$. Sometimes you will roll, say, 10 times with this strategy and lose money, but the average net is $4$.

Here is the result of $10^6$ simulated plays with the $4$ strategy:

net/number of occurrences

-21 1

-20 0

-19 0

-18 0

-17 0

-16 1

-15 0

-14 1

-13 5

-12 6

-11 8

-10 19

-9 32

-8 80

-7 146

-6 293

-5 579

-4 1122

-3 2272

-2 4517

-1 9147

0 18256

1 36474

2 72912

3 145747

4 291215

5 250332

6 166835

with an average net of $4.000515$.

Related Question